Ian McGarrigle, Chairman, World Retail Congress shares his views on the US consumer and the retailing mood following NRF 2026.

Walking up 5th Avenue early one morning during the week of NRF, I looked over and saw a darkened Saks. The Holiday season store decorations were still displayed across the front of the building but the lights were out and all the windows were covered up, presumably for a display reset. But the image of this iconic store shrouded in darkness felt symbolic of the financial troubles that were swirling around its parent, Saks Global, throughout the week of NRF.  

Later that day, Richard Baker, the executive Chairman and architect of Saks Global Enterprises and CEO for just two weeks exited the business. The following day, Saks filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with debts of close to $5 billion. Under Chapter 11, the stores can continue to trade but there will inevitably be major restructuring under new CEO, Geoffrey van Raemdonck, the former head of Neiman Marcus. 

The big question being asked in and around NRF in New York was whether the Saks bankruptcy was caused solely by the financial engineering around it; or the troubles in the worldwide luxury sector or more importantly, a reflection of the current US retail market.  

Just before retailers arrived in New York the NRF announced that Holiday sales for November 1 to December 31 grew by 4.1% and passed $1 trillion for the first time. In his opening address to the NRF Big Show, NRF Chair and Chairman and CEO of BJ’s Wholesale, Bob Eddy, acknowledged that 2025 had been impacted by “tariffs, policy uncertainty, strained supply chains and weak consumer demand” but said that retailers continued to move forward and saw growth and increased consumer spending. He said retailers succeeded by meeting consumers’ every day needs but also by providing inspiration and ideas for the special occasions and holidays that people will spend money on.  

Several senior retailers I spoke to confirmed that the Holiday season had arrived late, was tough, but did ultimately deliver.  

Despite all the uncertainties in the US as stated by Bob Eddy, the key factor at play is the resilience of the US consumer which has surprised many.  

Deloitte’s US economist, Michael Wolf, stated in his US Economic Forecast paper published in December that real consumer spending is expected to remain strong in the near term helped by a strong stock market which supports higher income consumers. Spending on durable goods has been particularly strong rising 3.1% and by 3% on non-durable goods in inflation adjusted terms. 

Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) in their 2026 Global Consumer Outlook paper describe a “bifurcated consumer” in the US with growing disparity between high and low income consumers.  

Looking ahead to the rest of the year the Deloitte paper says that despite this consumer resilience and willingness to spend, there is evidence that rising tariff costs are slowly being passed on to consumers and with it, consumer confidence is falling.  

Consumer spending rose 2.6% in 2025 year on year but Deloitte forecasts that “consumer spending is then expected to slow to 1.6% in 2026 as inflation, a weakening labour market, and slower stock price gains restrain growth”.  

According to RBC, “people are growing increasingly concerned about their future financial situation”.  

What is clear, talking to many US retailers is that, just like consumers, they have learnt to be resilient. As Bob Eddy said in his opening address and was underlined by John Furner, the incoming President and CEO of Walmart, retailers are constantly innovating and finding new ways to attract consumers. The growing investment in AI as shown by the record numbers at NRF reflects that drive to find new ways to deliver sustainable growth. 

The problems at Saks can therefore not be blamed on the current state of the US retail market where consumers have confounded the forecasters.  

What is undeniable is that US retail remains one of the most competitive markets in the world.  

In the immediate aftermath of Saks Chapter 11 filing, Macy’s shares rose dramatically as analysts saw that somewhere between $500 million and $1 billion in luxury market share was suddenly up for grabs.