20 Mar 2026

The Future of the Middle Class in Emerging Markets

Martina Bozadzhieva, Head of Corporate Advisory, Oxford Economics

For many retail leaders, identifying promising growth markets outside of core ones like Europe, the US, Japan, and others is a key component of a global growth strategy. Emerging markets can offer attractive growth opportunities, particularly as consumers enter the middle class for the first time, but they can also be risky and prone to volatility. To identify resilient emerging-markets middle class opportunities, Oxford Economics' dedicated report highlights several areas: 

  • The “middle class” in emerging markets will grow by 50% to over half a billion households by 2030.
  • Seven in every 10 new households added to the EM middle class by 2030 will be in Asia – six of which will be in China and India.
  • In the next five years alone, India’s middle class will more than double in size to 60mn households.

  • But don’t overlook the more traditional middle-class markets. We forecast Brazil and Mexico will retain their status as the 3rd and 4th biggest middle class in EMs in the next five years, only behind China and India.

To read the full report including data and forecasts across major emerging markets, please see here:  The future of the middle class in emerging markets – 2026 update | Oxford Economics

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