Retailing around the world has just entered the crucial last quarter of the year. Against a background of challenging times since the beginning of 2025, we asked the heads of some of the biggest and most important retail industry bodies for their predictions for the “Golden Quarter”. 

Matthew Shay, President and CEO, National Retail Federation 

While U.S. consumers have faced political and economic uncertainty, they have also been resilient. Core retail sales have been the silver lining on the U.S. economy which is a good sign for holiday spending. While many economists may consider holiday spending to be discretionary, consumers treat it as a very essential category. We expect that consumers will continue to save on nonessential categories — particularly in the services sector — in order to spend on essential goods categories like gifts for loved ones this holiday season.   

NRF’s work is rooted in a commitment to help retailers succeed and serve consumers everywhere. That means advocating for regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation and growth, as well as access to skilled labour to power retail businesses. And now more than ever, fighting for free and open markets with trade policies that are fair and mutually beneficial to a 21st century marketplace. These commitments are essential to ensure retail continues to grow, invest and innovate to the benefit of consumers in America and across the globe. 

 Helen Dickinson, CEO, British Retail Consortium 

Christmas is the biggest event in retail’s calendar, but in the UK this year there will be an added surprise. With the Chancellor’s Budget just days before Black Friday, consumers and businesses will be waiting to see what it means for them.  

UK sales have had what we called a “solid summer” with sales growth of around 3% but this won’t cover the extra £7bn of costs resulting from new government policies, particularly given it’s been primarily driven by inflation. Volume growth is below our European counterparts, so finding cost efficiencies has been a priority.  

Inflation is ticking slowly upwards. Consumer sentiment is being held back by concerns around the cost-of-living which speculation about the Budget will only exacerbate. Retailers hope to see a long-promised cut to their property taxes (business rates) bill, with the BRC pushing the Government to ensure a meaningful reduction – mitigating a situation where retailers are 5% of the economy yet pay over 20% of the tax - and that no store pays more as a result.  

So, however well Christmas sales go this year, the biggest event this Golden Quarter may well will be on 26 November when the Chancellor unveils her new Budget.  

Stefan Genth, Director General, Handelsverband Deutschland (HDE) 

 The last few months of the year usually are the most important ones for retailers. Some of them generate almost a quarter of their annual turnover in November and December, such as toyshops and bookshops. This is the time when most consumers buy their Christmas presents. Almost three quarters of them do their Christmas shopping in November and December. Therefore, the last quarter of the year is crucial to retailers’ success. 

Accordingly, retailers set their hopes on the Christmas business every year, and this year is no exception. However, the retail sector is struggling with weak consumer sentiment. Consumer restraint is still evident in Germany, with no recovery in private consumption in sight. 

In these challenging times, retailers are dependent on politicians to take action. The Federal Government must create the political framework for the announced economic upturn, starting with a consistent reduction in bureaucracy. At the same time, retailers are called upon to remain adaptable, keep an eye on customers’ needs and show openness to new technologies such as artificial intelligence. Then there is a chance that the German economy and consumer sentiment will pick up speed beyond the Golden Quarter. 

Murali Prakash, Chairman, Federation of Asia Pacific Retailers Associations (FAPRA) 

Asia Pacific's Q4 2025 presents a cautiously optimistic "Golden Quarter" for retail, characterised by resilient consumer demand despite moderate economic headwinds. While regional growth has moderated, strategic opportunities emerge through digital transformation, AI integration, and selective market expansion initiatives. 

Though Asia Pacific (APAC) economic growth is projected to decelerate in 2025 compared to 2024, the robust domestic demand cushions external pressures, positioning the region to outperform global averages. The outlook remains mixed. Divergent economic conditions prevail across APAC, with declining interest rates contrasting sharply with inflationary pressures and tariff-related trade disruptions elsewhere.  

APAC consumers demonstrate intentional spending patterns, favouring selective yet sustained holiday consumption. E-commerce is approaching one-third of retail sales, and omnichannel behaviours, along with AI-led personalisation, position Q4 strongly for Black Friday and seasonal events. Cautious discretionary spending pressures luxury segments while benefiting mid-market brands. Preferences emphasise value-driven purchases and cultural authenticity despite tariff-induced price pressures. 

Key opportunities include holiday season resilience supported by robust domestic consumption, rapid quick commerce expansion, AI-driven retail innovations enhancing customer experiences, and accelerating cross-border e-commerce growth. Success hinges on agile adaptation to value-conscious consumer behaviour and strategic market positioning across the region. 

Bijou Kurien, Chair, Retailers Association of India (RAI) 

Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalisation, increasing consumer optimism, and traditional festive spending habits are collectively driving robust growth in the upcoming Golden Quarter. Retail is growing in different areas and product lines, but there are still some economic risks beneath the surface. Festive celebrations continue to significantly boost retail sales, particularly in sectors such as food, jewellery, and durable goods. Despite concerns about inflation, cultural customs remain a powerful force behind consumer spending triggered by Diwali, Dussehra and Christmas festivals. 

Nationwide retail sales climbed by 7–8% until mid-2025. Sectors like quick-service restaurants, discretionary apparel, jewellery, and durables experienced notable recoveries, reflecting broad market improvement. 

GST reforms have lowered costs for essentials and textiles, improving affordability and streamlining supply chains. However, increased taxes on premium goods—such as high-end apparel and footwear—pose challenges for those segments. Retailers are approaching the season with cautious optimism, focusing on strategic product positioning, inventory management, and delivering value. High demand is expected in apparel, beauty, home décor, electronics, footwear, packaged foods, and gifting, all supported by competitive pricing and festive offers. 

Consumers intend to increase their festive spending, blending online and offline shopping with an emphasis on price and value. Passing on GST savings and providing clear value propositions will be essential, as easier credit facilitates larger purchases. There is also a noticeable shift toward affordable jewellery and experiential gifts, prompting retailers to adapt their strategies. 

The combination of GST reforms, rising consumer sentiment, and enduring festive traditions is strengthening retail prospects for the Golden Quarter. Retailers must remain agile to navigate risks and seize emerging opportunities. 

Deborah Weinswig, Founder and CEO, Coresight Research 

We expect more affluent consumers to disproportionately drive US retail expansion during the 2025 holiday season. Coresight Research uniquely tracks consumer sentiment weekly, and our data show that confidence is very strong among higher-income consumers: in fact, net positive sentiment toward personal finances among this group is up 13 percentage points since the start of the year. Lower- and middle-income consumer sentiment is down year to date (as of September 8) and dwindled again in August and early September.  

Retain Higher-Income Shoppers with Convenience 

Higher-income shoppers are still seeking value, and we expect outperformers in US retail to be led by those that offer a strong value proposition while catering to more affluent consumers’ demand for convenience, especially in omnichannel services such as BOPIS or rapid delivery. Coresight Research data show higher-income shoppers are 95% more willing to pay extra for convenient shopping experiences, online or in-store.  

Characteristics of Holiday 2025: What We Expect 

We anticipate early holiday shopping, greater deal-seeking and a degree of restraint as tariff-related costs start to impact pricing. In late August, we found almost one-third of US consumers had begun shopping for the holidays, with three-quarters of those shoppers saying they did so because of concerns about tariff impacts. Within the fourth quarter, we anticipate a greater proportion of shopping to be pulled forward into October as sales events such as Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days dovetail with the tendency for consumers to shop early during periods of financial pressure. 

Pressures are likely to provide tailwinds to some formats that are already proving to be long-term market-share gainers and that are focused on authentic and compelling everyday-low-price propositions, including expanding off-pricers (such as The TJX Companies), some mass merchandisers (notably Walmart) and warehouse clubs (such as Costco).